Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables. FINDINGS: A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57). INTERPRETATION: Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

The effect of fertility treatment and socioeconomic status on neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between fertility treatment, socioeconomic status (SES), and neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of all births (19,350,344) and infant deaths from 2014-2018 in the United States. The exposure was mode of conception-spontaneous vs fertility treatment. The outcome was neonatal (<28d), and post-neonatal (28d-1y) mortality. Multivariable logistic models were stratified by SES. RESULT: The fertility treatment group had statistically significantly higher odds of neonatal mortality (high SES OR 1.59; CI [1.5, 1.68], low SES OR 2.11; CI [1.79, 2.48]) and lower odds of post-neonatal mortality (high SES OR 0.87, CI [0.76, 0.996], low SES OR 0.6, CI [0.38, 0.95]). SES significantly modified the effect of ART/NIFT on neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Fertility treatment is associated with higher neonatal and lower post-neonatal mortality and SES modifies this effect. Socioeconomic policies and support for vulnerable families may help reduce rates of infant mortality.

Regional Disparities in the Infant Mortality Rate in Korea Between 2001 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: The infant mortality rate (IMR) has been considered an important indicator of the overall public health level. Despite improvements in recent decades, regional inequalities in the IMR have been reported worldwide. However, there are no Korean epidemiological studies on regional disparities in the IMR. METHODS: We extracted causes of death data from the Statistics Korea through the Korean Statistical Information Service database between 2001 and 2021. The total and regional IMRs were calculated to determine regional disparities. Based on causes of death and using Seoul as a reference, the excess infant deaths and population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for 15 other metropolitan cities and provinces. The average annual percent changes by region from 2001 to 2021 were obtained using a joinpoint regression program. To assess inequities in IMR trends, the rate ratios (RRs) and rate differences (RDs) of the 15 regions were calculated by dividing the study period into period 1 (2001-2007), period 2 (2008-2014), and period 3 (2015-2021). RESULTS: The overall IMR in Korea was 3.64 per 1,000 live births, and the IMRs in the 14 regions were relatively higher than that in Seoul, with RRs ranging from 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04, 1.27) in Jeju-do to 1.62 (95% CI, 1.54, 1.71) in Daegu, over the total study period. Significant differences in infant deaths by region were observed for all causes of death, with PAFs ranging from 2.2% (95% CI, 1.7, 2.6) in Gyeonggi-do to 38.4% (95% CI, 38.1, 38.6) in Daegu. The leading cause of excess infant deaths was perinatal problems. The IMR disparities in the relative and absolute measures decreased from 1.44 (1.34, 1.54) to 1.21 (1.10, 1.31) for RRs and from 0.79 (0.63, 0.96) to 0.30 (0.15, 0.45) for RDs between periods 1 and 2, followed by an increase from 1.21 (1.10, 1.31) to 1.36 (1.21, 1.53) for RRs and from 0.30 (0.15, 0.45) to 0.51(0.36, 0.67) for RDs between period 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Infant death is associated with place of residence and regional gaps have recently widened again in Korea. An in-depth investigation of the causes of regional disparities in infant mortality is required for effective governmental policies to achieve equality in infant health.

Uncovering the rural-urban gap in determinants of infant mortality in Punjab-Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this research is to observe the various socio-economic, demographic, health-seeking, and environmental factors influencing infant mortality and the rural-urban division in Punjab, Pakistan. METHODS: The study used the data of 38,405 households from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey that was conducted by the Bureau of Statistics Punjab during 2017-18. This survey assessed 125 indicators i.e., health, education, etc. created by UNICEF to assess the well-being of mothers and children in Punjab, Pakistan. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The mother, the child, and the family are the three main risk factors for infant death, according to our research in Pakistan. The socioeconomic position of the household, social practices, environment, and usage of medical services are the key factors that help in reducing infant death. Women's education, birth spacing, and household economic position all played a significant role in the decline in infant mortality. The health of infants born in rural Punjab is at risk due to a large rural-urban gap in the determinants of infant mortality. Uncovering and addressing this disparity has become a pressing health priority in Pakistan.

Geographical disparities and determinants of infant mortality in Ethiopia: mapping and spatial analysis using EDHS data.

BACKGROUND: Infant mortality remains a public health challenge in Ethiopia. Exploring infant mortality will aid in tracking the progress toward achieving sustainable development goals. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to explore the geographical variations and associated factors of infant mortality in Ethiopia. METHOD: A total of 11,023 infants from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data were extracted and included in the analysis. EDHS used a two-stage cluster sampling design with a census enumeration area as the primary sampling unit and households as the secondary sampling unit. Arc GIS software was used for spatial analysis using clusters for exploring geographical variations in infant mortality. A binary logistic regression was employed using R software to identify the significant determinants of infant mortality. RESULTS: The study revealed that the spatial distribution of infant mortality was non-random in the country. Infants whose mothers not receiving ANC (AOR = 1.45; 95%CI: 1.17, 1.79), not breastfed status (AOR = 3.94; 95%CI: 3.19, 4.81), poor wealth index (AOR = 1.36; 95%CI: 1.04, 1.77), male infants (AOR = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.29, 1.95), birth order of six or above (AOR = 3.11; 95%CI: 2.08, 4.62), small birth size (AOR = 1.27; 95%CI: 1.26, 1.60), birth spacing [(≤ 24 months (AOR = 2.29; 95%CI: 1.79, 2.92), 25-36 months (AOR = 1.16; 95%CI: 1.12, 1.49)], multiple births (AOR = 6.82; 95%CI: 4.76, 10.81), rural residence (AOR = 1.63; 95%CI: 1.05, 2.77) and regions [Afar (AOR = 1.54; 95%CI: 1.01, 2.36), Harari (AOR = 1.56; 95%CI: 1.04, 2.56), and Somali (AOR = 1.52; 95%CI: 1.03, 2.39)] were the determinants of infant death in Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: There is a great geographical disparity in infant mortality rates across regions. Afar, Harari, and Somali regions were verified as hot spot areas. ANC usage, breastfed status, wealth index, sex of the infant, birth order, birth size, birth spacing, birth type, residence, and region were the determinants of infant death in Ethiopia. Therefore, appropriate interventions need to be implemented in the hot spots to alleviate the risk factors for infant mortality.

Cost-benefit analysis of home visiting to reduce infant mortality among preterm infants.

PURPOSE: The Following Baby Back Home (FBBH) visiting program, which is provided by nurse and social worker teams, supports families of low-birthweight preterm infants after discharge from a neonatal intensive care unit. Enrollment in the FBBH program has been documented to reduce the likelihood of infant death. In this study, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis of the FBBH program. DESIGN AND METHODS: Infants enrolled in the FBBH program (N = 416) were identified through administrative records. Infants in the FBBH program were propensity score matched with comparison infants to estimate the difference in healthcare costs in the first year of life. RESULTS: Infants enrolled in the FBBH program incurred similar medical care costs compared to a comparison group. Avoided deaths, program costs, healthcare costs resulted in net economic benefits of the FBBH program to avoid infant death estimate at $83,020, cost per life saved at $3080, and benefit-to-cost ratio at 27.95. CONCLUSIONS: The FBBH program's net economic benefits from avoided deaths suggest a substantial return on investment of resources, yielding benefits in excess of program and healthcare costs. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: It is economically beneficial to provide home visiting services to families of low-birthweight babies by a team comprised of a registered nurse and social worker.

Disparities in Mortality Trends for Infants of Teenagers: 1996 to 2019.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although mortality rates are highest for infants of teens aged 15 to 19, no studies have examined the long-term trends by race and ethnicity, urbanicity, or maternal age. The objectives of this study were to examine trends and differences in mortality for infants of teens by race and ethnicity and urbanicity from 1996 to 2019 and estimate the contribution of changes in the maternal age distribution and maternal age-specific (infant) mortality rates (ASMRs) to differences in infant deaths in 1996 and 2019. METHODS: We used 1996 to 2019 period-linked birth and infant death data from the United States to assess biennial mortality rates per 1000 live births. Pairwise comparisons of rates were conducted using z test statistics and Joinpoint Regression was used to examine trends. Kitagawa decomposition analysis was used to estimate the proportion of change in infant deaths because of changes in the maternal age distribution and ASMRs. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2019, the mortality rate for infants of teens declined 16.7%, from 10.30 deaths per 1000 live births to 8.58. The decline was significant across racial and ethnic and urbanization subgroups; however, within rural counties, mortality rates did not change significantly for infants of Black or Hispanic teens. Changes in ASMRs accounted for 93.3% of the difference between 1996 and 2019 infant mortality rates, whereas changes in the maternal age distribution accounted for 6.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Additional research into the contextual factors in rural counties that are driving the lack of progress for infants of Black and Hispanic teens may help inform efforts to advance health equity.

Universal Tetanus-Diphtheria-Pertussis Vaccination During Pregnancy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccination in pregnant patients in the United States. METHODS: A decision-analytic model in TreeAge was developed to compare universal Tdap vaccination in pregnancy with no Tdap vaccination in pregnancy using a theoretical cohort of 3.66 million pregnant individuals, the approximate number of deliveries per year in the United States. Outcomes included infant pertussis infections, infant hospitalizations, infant encephalopathy cases, infant deaths, and maternal pertussis infections. All probabilities and costs were derived from the literature. Utilities were applied to discounted life expectancies at a rate of 3% to generate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). A strategy was considered cost effective if it had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of less than $100,000 per QALY. Univariable and multivariable sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the model to changes in the baseline assumptions. RESULTS: With a baseline assumption of vaccine cost at $47.75, Tdap vaccination was cost effective at $7,601 per QALY. The vaccination strategy was associated with a decrease of 22 infant deaths, 11 infant encephalopathy cases, 2,018 infant hospitalizations, 6,164 infant pertussis infections, and 8,585 maternal pertussis infections, with an increase of 19,489 QALYs. In sensitivity analyses, the strategy was cost effective until the incidence of maternal pertussis became lower than 1.6 cases per 10,000 individuals, the cost of the Tdap vaccine was greater than $540, or previous pertussis immunity was present in more than 92.1% of pregnant individuals. CONCLUSION: In a theoretical U.S. cohort of 3.66 million pregnant individuals, Tdap vaccination during pregnancy is cost effective and reduces infant morbidity and mortality compared with no vaccination during pregnancy. These findings are especially relevant given that approximately half of individuals are not vaccinated during pregnancy and recent data have shown that postpartum maternal vaccination and cocooning strategies are ineffective. Public health strategies to encourage greater uptake of Tdap vaccination should be used to reduce the morbidity and mortality of pertussis infection.

The Role of Breastfeeding in Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Sudden Unexpected Infant Death: A Population-Based Study of 13 Million Infants in the United States.

Sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) disproportionately affects non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and American Indian/Alaskan Native infants, who have lower rates of breastfeeding than other groups. Using 13,077,880 live-birth certificates and 11,942 linked SUID death certificates from 2015 through 2018, we calculated odds ratios and adjusted risk differences of SUID in infants who were not breastfed across 5 racial/ethnic strata in the United States. We analyzed mediation by not breastfeeding in the race/ethnicity-SUID association. The overall SUID rate was 0.91 per 1,000 live births. NHB and American Indian/Alaskan Native infants had the highest disparity in SUID relative to non-Hispanic White infants. Overall, not breastfeeding was associated with SUID (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10, 1.19), and the adjusted risk difference was 0.12 per 1,000 live births. The aOR of not breastfeeding for SUID was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.14) in NHB infants and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.46) in Hispanic infants. Breastfeeding minimally explained the higher SUID risk in NHB infants (2.3% mediated) and the lower risk in Hispanic infants (2.1% mediated) relative to non-Hispanic White infants. Competing risks likely explain the lower aOR seen in NHB infants of not breastfeeding on SUID, suggesting that social or structural determinants must be addressed to reduce racial disparities in SUID.

Examining the Relationship Between Sleep-Related Infant Deaths and Social Determinants of Health in Urban Communities.

In 2017, sleep-related infant deaths (SRID) accounted for about 3600 deaths in the USA. The SRID rate for African American infants (186. 41 per 100,000 live births) is more than twice that of Caucasian American infants (85. 43 per 100,000 live births) (Centers for Disease and Prevention, July 2020). PURPOSE: The purpose of this article is to develop a case for considering the relationship between racial disparities in SRID and social determinants of health (SDOH) in impoverished communities. The later has been related to chronic stress impacting biological and psychological functioning. The authors advocate that undesirable SDOH be regarded when developing safe sleep strategies for at risk communities, since chronic stress can impact psychological and biologic functioning, possibly manifesting in inconsistent safe sleep practices by caregivers. METHODS: An adapted environmental scan (AES), using SRID and SDOH data from impoverished communities, was used to illustrate the comparison of SRID and SDOH in contrasting Baltimore neighborhoods. RESULTS: The AES revealed a match between disparities in SRID and SDOH (e.g., educational achievement, unemployment, poverty, poor housing, and violence). The comparison between the SDOH and SRID increases together for named impoverished neighborhoods, as compared to those with low SRID rates in Baltimore. CONCLUSION: Rather than limit safe sleep interventions to crib and infant sleeper give-aways, for example, hazardous SDOH seen in impoverished communities should be addressed. We posit that these results will stimulate discussion for well-placed and financed programs, along with policies that focus on decreasing SRID by improving poor SDOH.

Reducing maternal and child mortality in rural Ghana.

The lack of health infrastructure in developing countries to provide women with modern obstetric care and universal access to maternal and child health services has largely contributed to the existing high maternal and infant deaths. Access to basic obstetric care for pregnant women and their unborn babies is a key to reducing maternal and infants´ deaths, especially at the community-level. This calls for the strengthening of primary health care systems in all developing countries, including Ghana. Financial access and utilization of maternal and child health care services need action at the community-level across rural Ghana to avoid preventable deaths. Financial access and usage of maternal and child health services in rural Ghana is poor. Lack of financial access is a strong barrier to the use of maternal and child health services, particularly in rural Ghana. The sustainability of the national health insurance scheme is vital in ensuring full access to care in remote communities.

Stillbirth and infant death: mental health among low-income mothers in Mumbai.

BACKGROUND: India has the highest number of stillbirths and the highest neonatal death rate in the world. In the context of its pronatalist society, women who experience perinatal loss often encounter significant social repercussions on top of grief. Furthermore, even when pregnancy outcomes were favorable, adverse life circumstances put some women at risk for postnatal depression. Therefore, perinatal loss and postnatal depression take a heavy toll on women's mental health. The purpose of this study is to assess mental health among a sample of Mumbai slum-dwelling women with a history of recent childbirth, stillbirth, or infant death, who are at risk for perinatal grief, postnatal depression, or mental health sequelae. METHODS: We conducted a mixed method, cross-sectional study. A focus group discussion informed the development of a comprehensive survey using mainly internationally validated scales. After rigorous forward and back-translation, surveys were administered as face-to-face structured interviews due to low literacy and research naiveté among our respondents. Interviews were conducted by culturally, linguistically, gender-matched, trained research assistants. RESULTS: Of our reproductive age (N = 260) participants, 105 had experienced stillbirth, 69 had a history of infant death, and 25 had experienced both types of loss. Nearly half of the sample met criteria for postnatal depression, and 20% of these women also met criteria for perinatal grief. Anxiety and depression varied by subgroup, and was highest among women desiring an intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding factors contributing to women's suffering related to reproductive challenges in this pronatalist context is critically important for women's wellbeing.

Social and ethnic disparities in stillbirth and infant death in Denmark, 2005-2016.

Ethnic disparity in stillbirth and infant death has been demonstrated in Europe. As the relation between migration and health change over time, this population based register study investigated the recent figures and explored if potential differences could be explained by the well-known educational and income inequalities in stillbirth and infant death using a novel approach. Stillbirth and infant mortality varied considerably according to country of origin, with only immigrants from China, Norway, and Poland having an overall lower risk than Danish women. Women of Pakistani, Turkish, and Somali origin had a particularly high risk of both outcomes. Women from recent high conflict areas displayed a pattern with increased stillbirth risk. An observed excess risks across generations was found, which is disturbing and rule out factors related to language barriers or newness. Differences in educational level and household income explained only part of the observed inequalities. Strengthening of the maternity care system to better understand and meet the needs of immigrant women seems needed to mitigate the disparities.

Parents' experiences of care following the loss of a baby at the margins between miscarriage, stillbirth and neonatal death: a UK qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the healthcare experiences of parents whose baby died either before, during or shortly after birth between 20+0 and 23+6  weeks of gestation in order to identify practical ways to improve healthcare provision. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study. SETTING: England through two parent support organisations and four NHS Trusts. SAMPLE: A purposive sample of parents. METHODS: Thematic analysis of semi-structured in-depth narrative interviews. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Parents' healthcare experiences. RESULTS: The key overarching theme to emerge from interviews with 38 parents was the importance of the terminology used to refer to the death of their baby. Parents who were told they were 'losing a baby' rather than 'having a miscarriage' were more prepared for the realities of labour, the birth experience and for making decisions around seeing and holding their baby. Appropriate terminology validated their loss, and impacted on parents' health and wellbeing immediately following bereavement and in the longer term. CONCLUSION: For parents experiencing the death of their baby at the margins between miscarriage, stillbirth and neonatal death, ensuring the use of appropriate terminology that reflects parents' preferences is vital. This helps to validate their loss and prepare them for the experiences of labour and birth. Reflecting parents' language preferences combined with compassionate bereavement care is likely to have a positive impact on parents' experiences and improve longer-term outcomes. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Describing baby loss shortly before 24 weeks of gestation as a 'miscarriage' does not prepare parents for labour and birth, seeing their baby and making memories.

Minimally invasive autopsy for fetuses and children based on a combination of post-mortem MRI and endoscopic examination: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Less invasive perinatal and paediatric autopsy methods, such as imaging alongside targeted endoscopy and organ biopsy, may address declining consent rates for traditional autopsy, but their acceptability and accuracy are not known. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to provide empirical data on the acceptability and likely uptake for different types of autopsy among key stakeholders (study 1); and to analyse existing autopsy data sources to provide estimates of the potential efficacy of less invasive autopsy (LIA) and its projected utility in clinical practice (study 2). REVIEW METHODS: Study 1: this was a mixed-methods study. Parents were involved in research design and interpretation of findings. Substudy 1: a cross-sectional survey of 859 parents who had experienced miscarriage, termination of pregnancy for fetal anomaly, stillbirth, infant or child death, and interviews with 20 responders. Substudy 2: interviews with 25 health professionals and four coroners. Substudy 3: interviews with 16 religious leaders and eight focus groups, with 76 members of the Muslim and Jewish community. Study 2: a retrospective analysis of national data in addition to detailed information from an existing in-house autopsy database of > 5000 clinical cases that had undergone standard autopsy to determine the proportion of cases by clinical indication group for which tissue sampling of specific internal organs significantly contributed to the diagnosis. RESULTS: Substudy 1: 91% of participants indicated that they would consent to some form of LIA, 54% would consent to standard autopsy, 74% to minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) and 77% to non-invasive autopsy (NIA). Substudy 2: participants viewed LIA as a positive development, but had concerns around the limitations of the technology and de-skilling the workforce. Cost implications, skills and training requirements were identified as implementation challenges. Substudy 3: religious leaders agreed that NIA was religiously permissible, but MIA was considered less acceptable. Community members indicated that they might consent to NIA if the body could be returned for burial within 24 hours. Study 2: in 5-10% of cases of sudden unexplained death in childhood and sudden unexplained death in infants, the final cause of death is determined by routine histological sampling of macroscopically normal organs, predominantly the heart and lungs, and in this group routine histological sampling therefore remains an important aspect of investigation. In contrast, routine histological examination of macroscopically normal organs rarely (< 0.5%) provides the cause of death in fetal cases, making LIA and NIA approaches potentially highly applicable. LIMITATIONS: A key limitation of the empirical research is that it is hypothetical. Further research is required to determine actual uptake. Furthermore, because of the retrospective nature of the autopsy data set, findings regarding the likely contribution of organ sampling to final diagnosis are based on extrapolation of findings from historical autopsies, and prospective data collection is required to validate the conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: LIA is viable and acceptable (except for unexplained deaths), and likely to increase uptake. Further health economic, performance and implementation studies are required to determine the optimal service configuration required to offer this as routine clinical care. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Autopsy (post-mortem) examination of babies and children who die is often necessary to help doctors or coroners find out the cause of death. It may also be useful for research. However, many bereaved parents dislike the idea of their child being cut and some religious communities prohibit the procedure. Over the past 30 years, consent rates for autopsies have declined. In order to address parental concerns and declining uptake, a number of less invasive options have been developed. These include X-ray and magnetic resonance imaging, by doing keyhole internal examination and needle organ biopsy. However, it is not known to what extent such methods are acceptable to parents, nor how accurate they are. We surveyed the attitudes of bereaved parents and religious group leaders to such less invasive methods. The less invasive option was considered acceptable and would be chosen by almost 1000 bereaved parents. Such an approach is also acceptable to those religious groups for whom standard autopsy examination is not. We also examined a database of > 5000 standard autopsies to determine the extent to which specific internal organ biopsy contributed to the diagnosis. In > 5000 standard autopsies, traditional organ biopsy rarely contributed to determination of the cause of death or the main diagnosis. Therefore, a more limited and targeted tissue sampling protocol could be introduced without significant reduction in the accuracy of final diagnosis. The specific approaches required will depend on individual circumstances and are likely to include a range, from targeted organ biopsy with an open incision, through incisionless image-guided needle biopsies, to non-invasive imaging-only techniques. Future studies may focus on how the NHS could implement offering less invasive approaches nationally, what the cost­benefit of such an approach could be and what the impact could be on real-world uptake if this were to be offered routinely.

Venezuela's public health crisis: a regional emergency.

The economic crisis in Venezuela has eroded the country's health-care infrastructure and threatened the public health of its people. Shortages in medications, health supplies, interruptions of basic utilities at health-care facilities, and the emigration of health-care workers have led to a progressive decline in the operational capacity of health care. The effect of the crisis on public health has been difficult to quantify since the Venezuelan Ministry of Health stopped publishing crucial public health statistics in 2016. We prepared a synthesis of health information, beyond what is available from other sources, and scholarly discussion of engagement strategies for the international community. Data were identified through searches in MEDLINE, PubMed, and the grey literature, through references from relevant articles, and governmental and non-governmental reports, and publicly available databases. Articles published in English and Spanish until Dec 1, 2018, were included. Over the past decade, public health measures in Venezuela have substantially declined. From 2012 to 2016, infant deaths increased by 63% and maternal mortality more than doubled. Since 2016, outbreaks of the vaccine-preventable diseases measles and diphtheria have spread throughout the region. From 2016 to 2017, Venezuela had the largest rate of increase of malaria in the world, and in 2015, tuberculosis rates were the highest in the country in 40 years. Between 2017 and 2018, most patients who were infected with HIV interrupted therapy because of a lack of medications. The Venezuelan economic crisis has shattered the health-care system and resulted in rising morbidity and mortality. Outbreaks and expanding epidemics of infectious diseases associated with declines in basic public health services are threatening the health of the country and the region.

Small area estimation of under-5 mortality in Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia using spatially misaligned data.

BACKGROUND: The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is an important metric of child health and survival. Country-level estimates of U5MR are readily available, but efforts to estimate U5MR subnationally have been limited, in part, due to spatial misalignment of available data sources (e.g., use of different administrative levels, or as a result of historical boundary changes). METHODS: We analyzed all available complete and summary birth history data in surveys and censuses in six countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia) at the finest geographic level available in each data source. We then developed small area estimation models capable of incorporating spatially misaligned data. These small area estimation models were applied to the birth history data in order to estimate trends in U5MR from 1980 to 2015 at the second administrative level in Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia and at the third administrative level in Bangladesh. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in U5MR in all six countries: there was more than a two-fold difference in U5MR between the area with the highest rate and the area with the lowest rate in every country. All areas in all countries experienced declines in U5MR between 1980 and 2015, but the degree varied both within and between countries. In Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, and Zambia we found areas with U5MRs in 2015 that were higher than in other parts of the same country in 1980. Comparing subnational U5MR to country-level targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), we find that 12.8% of areas in Bangladesh did not meet the country-level target, although the country as whole did. A minority of areas in Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia met the country-level MDG targets while these countries as a whole did not. CONCLUSIONS: Subnational estimates of U5MR reveal significant within-country variation. These estimates could be used for identifying high-need areas and positive deviants, tracking trends in geographic inequalities, and evaluating progress towards international development targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.

Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics. DESIGN, SETTING AND OUTCOME MEASURES: EUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005-2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age <1 year) compared with the WHO Mortality Database. Eight EUROCAT countries were excluded from further analysis on the basis that this comparison showed poor ascertainment of survival status. RESULTS: According to WHO, 17%-42% of infant mortality was attributed to congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly. CONCLUSIONS: By excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention.